by Worthy News Washington D.C. Bureau Staff
(Worthy News) – A new report from Decision Desk HQ, released on Monday, reveals a dramatic and widespread shift among Latino voters away from the Democratic Party between 2020 and 2024, transforming a once-reliable voting bloc into a competitive political battleground ahead of the 2024 elections.
According to Decision Desk HQ data scientist Zachary Donnini, Democratic support among Hispanic voters nationally dropped by 10.4 percentage points, from approximately 65.1% in 2020 to 54.7% in 2024.
“This seismic shift occurred across virtually every region of the country,” Donnini wrote, “with the most pronounced changes concentrated in high-density Hispanic metropolitan areas that had previously served as Democratic strongholds.”
In major urban centers traditionally dominated by Democrats, the decline has been especially stark. In New York City, Latino support in the heavily Hispanic boroughs of Queens and the Bronx fell by 17 and 19 points, respectively — from 75-80% in 2020 to just 55-60% by 2024. Washington, D.C., another progressive stronghold, saw the most significant single-point drop at 17.7 points.
On the West Coast, Los Angeles experienced a 12-point decline among Latino voters, from 75% support in 2020 to 63% in 2024. In California’s Central Valley, a key region for agriculture and migrant labor, the decline was even sharper — a 14-point drop from 66% to 52%.
Battleground states in the Southwest were not immune. Arizona saw a 10-point drop in Latino support for Democrats, slipping from 70% to 60%. New Mexico’s Latino support also fell 10 points, down to 50.6%. In Texas, long viewed as a potential future blue state due to its Hispanic population, the Latino vote shifted 11 points away from Democrats.
Florida, which was already trending Republican among Hispanic voters, saw its support fall below 40%, from 50% in 2020 to just 39% in 2024.
The reasons behind the shift remain complex and multifaceted. Analysts have pointed to economic dissatisfaction, concerns about crime and border policy, cultural conservatism on social issues, and a sense of being taken for granted by progressive politicians.
Republican leaders responded to the findings by welcoming what they described as a “long overdue realignment.”
“The Latino community is pro-family, pro-faith, pro-freedom, and pro-work,” said RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel in a statement. “They’re realizing that today’s Democratic Party no longer reflects their values — and Republicans are ready to welcome them with open arms.”
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida said the data “proves what we’ve seen on the ground for years — Hispanic Americans want secure borders, safe neighborhoods, and economic opportunity, not radical ideologies that threaten their future.”
With less than six months until the 2024 general election, the Democratic Party now faces an urgent challenge: how to regain ground with a constituency that was once a cornerstone of its national strategy. If trends continue, Latinos may emerge not as a guaranteed Democratic base, but as a pivotal swing vote in the next era of politics.
Copyright 1999-2026 Worthy News. This article was originally published on Worthy News and was reproduced with permission.
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